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EV

Energy Vault Holdings, Inc. (NRGV)·Q3 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q3 2025 revenue rose to $33.3M (+27x YoY) with GAAP gross margin at 27.0%; adjusted EBITDA loss narrowed to $6.0M, and total cash (incl. restricted) increased to $61.9M .
  • Company reaffirmed FY2025 guidance: revenue $200–$250M, gross margin 14–16%, and year-end cash of $75–$100M; backlog stood at $920M (+112% YTD) .
  • Strategic catalysts: closed $300M preferred equity with OIC to launch Asset Vault, acquired 150 MW SOSA BESS (ERCOT), and signed framework to deploy up to 1.8 GWh BESS in Europe with EU Green; Asset Vault Fund 1 targets $40M recurring adj. EBITDA by YE2027 and $100–$150M by YE2029 .
  • Estimate context: Q3 revenue slightly below consensus ($33.3M vs $34.0M*) and EPS below consensus (-$0.16 GAAP vs -$0.05*)—management cited timing of U.S. battery deliveries, tariffs/macros and Australia project timelines . Values retrieved from S&P Global*.
  • Near-term stock narrative: execution on Australia deliveries (Q4 ramp), monetization of ~$40M ITC, and visible Asset Vault portfolio build-out are key drivers; guidance maintained amidst macro/tariff volatility .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • Asset Vault funding and execution: Closed $300M preferred equity with OIC and immediately acquired 150 MW SOSA BESS; four projects totaling 340 MW now operating or in construction, targeting $40M recurring adj. EBITDA by YE2027 and $100–$150M by YE2029 .
  • Backlog and margin strength: Backlog reached $920M (+112% YTD) and GAAP gross margin was 27.0% in Q3 (32.6% YTD), reflecting favorable mix and disciplined execution .
  • Cash build and financing progress: Total cash rose to $61.9M (+7% QoQ), with ~$40M of ITC proceeds expected in Q4, reinforcing liquidity for growth .
  • Quote: “We are reaffirming full-year 2025 guidance… projecting $75–$100 million in cash at the end of the year… together with our strong $920 million backlog” – Robert Piconi (CEO) .

What Went Wrong

  • EPS miss vs consensus: GAAP EPS was -$0.16 vs S&P consensus* -$0.05, driven by elevated G&A and OI&E items despite revenue ramp . Values retrieved from S&P Global*.
  • Macro/tariff headwinds: Management cited “stop-and-starts” in U.S. battery deliveries and tariff volatility; only ~10% of backlog was exposed, but timing impacts remained .
  • Opex mix: GAAP operating expenses remained high at $26.6M; adjusted opex flat at $16.2M QoQ, offset by Asset Vault start-up and Australia development costs .

Financial Results

Consolidated Metrics

MetricQ1 2025Q2 2025Q3 2025
Revenue ($USD Millions)$8.534 $8.512 $33.319
Gross Profit ($USD Millions)$4.876 $2.516 $9.010
Gross Margin %57.1% 29.6% 27.0%
GAAP Operating Expenses ($USD Millions)$25.769 $30.664 $26.593
Adjusted Operating Expenses ($USD Millions)$16.199 $16.202 $16.224
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)$(11.270) $(13.654) $(6.026)
Net Loss per Share (GAAP) ($USD)$(0.14) $(0.22) $(0.16)
Total Cash incl. Restricted ($USD Millions)$47.155 $58.099 $61.928

Estimate Comparison (S&P Global)

MetricQ1 2025Q2 2025Q3 2025
Revenue Consensus Mean ($USD)$25.04M*$30.57M*$33.99M*
Revenue Actual ($USD)$8.53M*$8.51M*$33.32M*
Primary EPS Consensus Mean ($USD)-$0.13*-$0.08*-$0.05*
Primary EPS Actual ($USD)-$0.076*-$0.117*-$0.10*

Values retrieved from S&P Global*. Note: “Primary EPS” may differ from GAAP net loss per share reported in company filings.

KPIs

KPIQ1 2025Q2 2025Q3 2025
Backlog ($USD Millions)$648 $954 $920
Developed Pipeline (GWh / $USD)2.6 GWh projects in AU in construction/dev ~6 GWh / ~$2.4B ~8.7 GWh / ~$2.1B

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
RevenueFY 2025$200–$250M (Q2) $200–$250M (Q3) Maintained
GAAP Gross Margin %FY 2025n/a14–16% Introduced
Year-End CashFY 2025n/a$75–$100M Introduced
Recurring Adj. EBITDA (Asset Vault)YE 2027n/a~$40M Introduced
Recurring Adj. EBITDA (Asset Vault)YE 2029$100M+ next 3–4 yrs (Q2) $100–$150M Clarified/Expanded timeline
ITC ProceedsQ4 2025~$27M Sep ITCs (Q2) ~$40M expected in Q4 Raised

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q2 2025)Previous Mentions (Q1 2025)Current Period (Q3 2025)Trend
Asset Vault funding & buildExclusivity for $300M preferred; own & operate strategy detailed Portfolio progressing; first assets generating revenue Closed $300M OIC; acquired 150 MW SOSA; 340 MW operating/in construction Accelerating
Australia executionRevenue driven by AU projects; Stoney Creek acquired (125 MW/1 GWh) First battery construction; AU market robust AU > half of Q3 revenue; Stony Creek moving to DA/RTB Scaling
Tariffs/macroU.S. tariff dispute impacted deliveries; cost actions Tariff pause noted; mitigating via supply chain Volatility persists; ~10% backlog tariff-exposed; agile footprint Managing volatility
AI/datacenter collaborationsn/an/aCrusoe collaboration to enable modular data centers Emerging growth vector
Cash/ITC monetizationEnd-Q2 cash $58.1M; ~$27M ITCs Sep Calistoga financing; ~$45–$50M financing/ITCs upcoming Cash $61.9M; ~$40M ITCs expected Q4; YE cash $75–$100M Strengthening
Cost/OpEx discipline$6.5M annualized savings; adj. opex $16.2M Plan to reduce adjusted opex by 15–25% Adj. opex flat ($16.2M); start-up costs for Asset Vault Stable/control

Management Commentary

  • “We made major progress on our ‘build-own-operate’ Asset Vault strategy… closing a $300 million non-dilutive preferred equity investment from Orion Infrastructure Capital (OIC)… we are reaffirming full-year 2025 guidance… projecting $75–$100 million in cash at the end of the year” – Robert Piconi (CEO) .
  • “Q3 2025 GAAP gross margin of 27% and 32.6% year to date… adjusted opex were $16.2M, flat QoQ… expect to receive $40M of investment tax credit proceeds in Q4… backlog of $920M, up 112% YTD” – Michael Beer (CFO) .
  • “We immediately put [Asset Vault] capital to work… purchase of a 150 MW interconnect site outside Houston… now four projects and 340 MW… delivering a little over $40M in recurring annual EBITDA as all come online” – Robert Piconi (CEO) .

Q&A Highlights

  • R&D spend trajectory: Sequential decline reflects belt-tightening and pivot from heavy R&D to Asset Vault development/operations .
  • Macro/tariffs and customer pace: Management acknowledged delays from tariffs/shutdown but highlighted diverse footprint and agility; noted only ~10% of backlog is tariff-exposed .
  • Backlog composition: $920M backlog excludes SOSA and EU Green projects; expectation to add as milestones finalize .
  • Pipeline growth: Developed pipeline increased to 8.7 GWh/$2.1B; specifics undisclosed, representing stage 4/5 shortlisted/awarded opportunities .

Estimates Context

  • Q3 2025: Revenue $33.32M* vs consensus $33.99M* (slight miss); EPS -$0.10* “Primary EPS” vs consensus -$0.05* (miss). GAAP EPS reported -$0.16 . Values retrieved from S&P Global*.
  • Q1/Q2 2025: Significant revenue shortfalls vs consensus amid timing of U.S. battery deliveries/tariff impacts; EPS below consensus in Q2 and Q3; management reaffirmed FY ranges, pointing to strong Q4 ramp and AU deliveries . Values retrieved from S&P Global*.
  • Implication: Street models likely need to lower near-term EPS, with revenue timing shifted to Q4; medium-term revisions should incorporate Asset Vault recurring EBITDA build and backlog quality.

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Execution inflection: Revenue ramp and margin stability (27% GM) alongside liquidity build ($61.9M cash) reduce near-term risk; watch Q4 deliveries and ITC monetization to hit YE cash targets .
  • Asset Vault transforms profile: $300M OIC preferred accelerates owned-asset build-out (340 MW active/in construction) with visibility to $40M recurring EBITDA by YE2027 and $100–$150M by YE2029—supportive of re-rating toward infrastructure-like cash flows .
  • Backlog quality over quantity: $920M backlog (+112% YTD) anchored by Consumers Energy, LTSA, and Australia offtakes; SOSA and EU Green provide incremental upside upon milestone inclusion .
  • Macro/tariff mitigation: Only ~10% backlog tariff-exposed; diversified geography and supplier base plus shift to own/operate reduce exposure to U.S. policy volatility .
  • Cost discipline intact: Adjusted opex stable (~$16.2M) with investment focused on Asset Vault and AU; operating leverage should improve as revenue scales and recurring EBITDA contributes .
  • Trading setup: Near-term catalysts include Q4 revenue step-up, ~$40M ITC proceeds, and potential backlog additions; estimate dispersion likely narrows post-Q4 print and Investor Day replay digestion .
  • Medium-term thesis: Vertically integrated storage IPP plus third-party EPC/LTSA synergies could drive durable margins/cash conversion; monitor merchant exposure (~25%) and financing cadence .
Notes:
- All company-reported figures cited directly from Q3 2025 8-K press release and financial statements, as well as Q2/Q1 filings and call transcripts.
- S&P Global consensus/actuals marked with * and may use “Primary EPS,” which can differ from GAAP net loss per share.